Open models, unsettled economics
Open models are changing the price of intelligence and where control sits. The rapid shift in usage is another reason to question whether AI's economics have settled.
Field Notes · #strategy
Open models are changing the price of intelligence and where control sits. The rapid shift in usage is another reason to question whether AI's economics have settled.
AI will reach for the internet's familiar business model. I expect the more durable money to come from trusted information and transactions completed on our behalf.
AI feels cheap. It feels cheap because investor capital is subsidising it. Four structural forces are converging that reframe the trajectory as an open question with significant downside.
When AI told a consumer 'you have a good deal, don't switch', it wasn't providing information. It was giving advice. The inflation data raises a strategic question about need-led comparison.
ChatGPT has announced plans to test advertising in the U.S. This does not change current marketing in Australia, but it indicates where conversational AI is heading.
2025 was the year the old marketing playbook stopped working. 2026 won't be about incremental adaptation. It will be about reconstruction.
The intent is sound. The mechanism is blunt. Once minors present as adults to evade the ban, the safety systems that protect them stop working.
AI-generated avatars presented as genuine customers erode trust and risk breaching Australian Consumer Law. A note on what this means for marketers and platforms.